As the 2024 NFL season enters its final stretch, the Los Angeles Rams have seized control of the NFC with a 9-2 record, while the Denver Broncos sit atop the AFC standings—despite not playing in Week 12. The playoff picture, as of Sunday, November 28, 2024, is tighter than ever, with five teams in the NFC alone holding records between 7-4 and 9-2, turning the final five weeks into a high-stakes chess match. The Denver Broncos (9-2, 96% playoff probability) lead the AFC with a commanding lead over the Baltimore Ravens (8-3, 89%) and Indianapolis Colts (8-3), but the real drama is unfolding in the NFC, where home-field advantage could hinge on a single December game.
Who’s Really in Control?
The Los Angeles Rams didn’t just win their ninth game—they dominated. Their 31-28 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 24 wasn’t just a win; it was a statement. Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense held Tom Brady’s successor, Baker Mayfield, to just 187 passing yards. That win not only pushed the Rams to the top of the NFC but also gave them the tiebreaker edge over the Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) and Chicago Bears (8-3), both of whom are tied for second. The Rams’ remaining schedule—home against the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals, then a pivotal road trip to face the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers—could determine whether they host the NFC Championship.The AFC: Broncos on Pause, Ravens on Fire
While the Broncos sat out Week 12, their 96% playoff probability isn’t just luck—it’s structure. Their defense ranks sixth in the league, and their offense, led by Russell Wilson, has found rhythm in the red zone. But here’s the twist: their final five games include four opponents with winning records, including the Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens are playing their best football of the season, winning five straight. Lamar Jackson has been surgical, throwing just one interception since Week 8. Their Thursday night matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (3-8-1) wasn’t just a win—it was a statement. The Ravens now hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers, and if they win out, they could leapfrog Denver for the top seed.Wild Card Chaos in the NFC
The NFC wild-card race is a three-team scrum. The Seattle Seahawks (8-3) beat the Titans 30-24 in a game that felt more like a 30-17 rout. Geno Smith has quietly become one of the league’s most efficient passers, and their defense is forcing turnovers at a league-high rate. The Chicago Bears (8-3) are the surprise story—after losing their first three games, they’ve won eight of their last nine. Their 31-28 win over the Steelers was fueled by rookie running back Jayden Reed’s two touchdowns and a game-sealing interception by safety Jaquan Brisker. If the season ended today, the Bears would host the Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois—a matchup that would be electric, especially after Aaron Rodgers’ emotional return to Green Bay last month.But don’t count out the Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4). Despite Trevor Lawrence throwing four interceptions against the Cardinals, they won in overtime on a 48-yard touchdown pass to Zay Jones. That win pushed their playoff probability to 60%. And their schedule? Tough—but winnable. Road games against the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and Denver Broncos are all doable if Lawrence cuts down the mistakes.
The Dark Horses: Texans and Chiefs Still Alive
Here’s what no one’s talking about: the Houston Texans (6-5) are still in the AFC playoff hunt—even without C.J. Stroud. Their defense, ranked No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed per game, has carried them. Rookie linebacker Will Anderson Jr. has 11 sacks in his last six games. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) won their Thanksgiving game against the Colts thanks to Patrick Mahomes’ late-game heroics. But CBS Sports nailed it: “It wasn’t enough to mask greater offensive issues.” The Chiefs’ offensive line has been a sieve, and their running game is nonexistent. Still, with three games left against teams under .500, they’re not dead.What’s Next? The Critical Week 13 Matchups
The next 14 days will decide everything. On Black Friday, November 29, the Philadelphia Eagles host the Chicago Bears—a game that could decide the NFC North and NFC East crown. Then, on December 1, the Los Angeles Rams face the Seattle Seahawks in a potential NFC playoff preview. And don’t forget the Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), who’ll face the Las Vegas Raiders and then the Eagles—two games that could knock them out of the top five.
Why This Matters
This isn’t just about who makes the playoffs. It’s about momentum. The Rams, if they hold on, could be the first team since the 2021 Buccaneers to win a Super Bowl with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Ravens are playing like a team destined for a deep run. And the Bears? They’re the most improved team in the league. For fans, this is the kind of stretch that makes football addictive. For bettors, it’s chaos. For fantasy managers, it’s a nightmare. And for the teams fighting to stay alive? It’s everything.Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Chicago Bears still win the NFC North?
Yes, but it’s unlikely. The Bears are 8-3 and lead the NFC North by a half-game over the Green Bay Packers (7-3-1). However, they face the Packers in Week 17, and if they lose that game, they’d need the Packers to lose twice more to clinch the division. Their path to the top seed is through the wild card, where they’d host Green Bay if the season ended today.
Why is the Los Angeles Rams’ schedule considered easier than Denver’s?
The Rams have only three opponents with winning records left: the Seahawks, 49ers, and Lions. The Broncos, meanwhile, face four—Commanders, Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs. According to Sports Illustrated’s playoff probability model, the Rams’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .487, while Denver’s are at .591. That’s a 10-point difference in difficulty.
Is Patrick Mahomes’ late-game heroics enough to save the Kansas City Chiefs?
Not long-term. Mahomes’ two fourth-quarter drives against the Colts kept them alive, but their offense ranks 24th in yards per game and 29th in rushing. Their offensive line has allowed 28 sacks in the last six weeks. Even with Mahomes, they need more balance. If they make the playoffs, they’ll likely be a one-and-done team unless their line improves dramatically.
What’s the biggest threat to the Los Angeles Rams’ top seed?
The Seattle Seahawks. They’re 8-3, have a better divisional record than the Rams, and play them in Week 17 at SoFi Stadium. If the Seahawks win that game, they’d take the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Rams also face the 49ers and Lions—both playoff-caliber teams—down the stretch. One loss in those games could open the door.
Could the Jacksonville Jaguars make the playoffs without a top-10 offense?
Absolutely. Their defense is top-10 in points allowed, and their special teams are elite. Trevor Lawrence’s turnovers are a concern, but their run game—led by Travis Etienne—has improved, averaging 4.8 yards per carry over the last four games. If they win two of their final three road games, they’ll likely sneak in as the No. 6 seed.
What’s the most important game left in the AFC?
The Ravens at Bengals on November 28 was critical—it gave Baltimore the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. But the real showdown is December 8: Broncos at Ravens. That game could decide the AFC’s top seed. Denver’s defense is strong, but Lamar Jackson has dominated them in recent matchups, averaging 312 passing yards and 3 TDs in their last three meetings.